Generated 27 Aug 2026, 19:17 · kick-off times WEST

Daily Card

Thursday 27 August 2026

Every selection below has a negative expected return. This page ranks which bet loses least, because measured across 61,412 matches nothing in this project loses nothing. The model is not used to pick — it was measured at −6.8% and its own selections are its weakest output.

-7.43%

Best available
expected return

Matches
shown

Competitions
covered

Selections
per match

European Competitions

31 matches · ranked by expected return.

#	Pick	Odds	Margin	Expected
17:00 · FK Qarabag v FC Twente Conference League Qualifying
#1	Over 2.5O/U	1.57	8.1%	-7.30%
#2	FC Twente1X2	1.91	8.8%	-7.65%
#3	FK Qarabag +0.5AH	1.83	8.0%	-7.95%
#4	FC Twente handicapAH	1.87	8.0%	-7.95%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.25	8.1%	-8.98%
17:00 · Jablonec v Rangers Conference League Qualifying
#1	Rangers handicapAH	2.35	7.5%	-6.05%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.83	8.0%	-7.25%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	1.87	8.0%	-7.25%
#4	Rangers1X2	2.40	8.3%	-7.37%
#5	Jablonec +0.5AH	1.54	7.5%	-7.39%
17:45 · Monaco v Gornik Zabrz Conference League Qualifying
#1	Monaco1X2	1.34	7.7%	-4.37%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.56	7.8%	-6.98%
#3	Monaco -1.5AH	1.87	8.0%	-7.95%
#4	Gornik Zabrz handicapAH	1.83	8.0%	-7.95%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.30	7.8%	-8.67%
17:45 · Freiburg v Motherwell Conference League Qualifying
#1	Freiburg1X2	1.15	7.7%	-4.37%
#2	Freiburg -2.5AH	2.25	8.1%	-6.66%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.69	8.0%	-7.18%
#4	Motherwell handicapAH	1.57	8.1%	-8.00%
#5	Over 3.5O/U	2.05	8.0%	-8.87%
18:00 · Kauno Zalgiris v Besiktas Europa League Qualifying
#1	Besiktas1X2	1.30	6.3%	-3.00%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.69	6.8%	-6.02%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	2.10	6.8%	-7.70%
#4	Kauno Zalgiris +1.5AH	1.80	9.0%	-8.96%
#5	Besiktas handicapAH	1.87	9.0%	-8.96%
18:00 · Lillestrom v Egnatia Europa League Qualifying
#1	Lillestrom1X2	1.40	6.0%	-2.71%
#2	Lillestrom -1.5AH	2.15	8.1%	-6.63%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.74	7.4%	-6.66%
#4	Egnatia handicapAH	1.62	8.1%	-7.97%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.00	7.4%	-8.35%
18:00 · Omonia v Sint-Truidense Europa League Qualifying
#1	Omonia1X2	2.10	6.0%	-5.05%
#2	Under 2.5O/U	1.77	6.5%	-5.74%
#3	Draw1X2	3.45	6.0%	-6.48%
#4	Sint-Truidense1X2	3.40	6.0%	-6.48%
#5	Omonia -0.5AH	2.00	8.3%	-6.91%
18:00 · RB Salzburg v Mjällby Europa League Qualifying
#1	RB Salzburg1X2	1.22	6.3%	-2.97%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.71	7.1%	-6.33%
#3	Mjällby handicapAH	2.15	8.1%	-6.63%
#4	RB Salzburg -1.5AH	1.62	8.1%	-7.97%
#5	Over 3.5O/U	2.05	7.1%	-8.02%
18:00 · Viktoria Plzen v Red Star Europa League Qualifying
#1	Viktoria Plzen1X2	1.95	5.8%	-4.73%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.61	6.7%	-5.92%
#3	Draw1X2	3.90	5.8%	-6.31%
#4	Red Star1X2	3.45	5.8%	-6.31%
#5	Over 3.5O/U	2.25	6.7%	-7.61%
18:00 · København v Inter Turku Conference League Qualifying
#1	København1X2	1.24	8.3%	-5.02%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.54	8.4%	-7.61%
#3	København -1.5AH	1.74	8.7%	-8.59%
#4	Inter Turku handicapAH	1.95	8.7%	-8.59%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.30	8.4%	-9.30%
18:00 · Hradec Králové v Panathinaikos Conference League Qualifying
#1	Panathinaikos handicapAH	2.10	8.4%	-6.98%
#2	Panathinaikos1X2	2.20	8.1%	-7.12%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.91	7.9%	-7.15%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	1.80	7.9%	-7.15%
#5	Hradec Králové +0.5AH	1.65	8.4%	-8.32%
18:00 · Inter D'Escaldes v Drita Gjilan Conference League Qualifying
#1	Inter D'Escaldes -0.5AH	2.15	8.1%	-6.63%
#2	Inter D'Escaldes1X2	2.25	8.3%	-7.37%
#3	Drita Gjilan1X2	2.90	8.3%	-7.88%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.74	8.7%	-7.88%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	1.95	8.7%	-7.88%
18:00 · Pafos v Dinamo City Conference League Qualifying
#1	Pafos1X2	1.21	8.4%	-5.04%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.57	8.1%	-7.30%
#3	Dinamo City handicapAH	2.15	8.8%	-7.35%
#4	Pafos -1.5AH	1.61	8.8%	-8.70%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.25	8.1%	-8.98%
18:00 · Raków v Hajduk Split Conference League Qualifying
#1	Raków1X2	1.83	8.3%	-7.23%
#2	Raków -0.5AH	1.80	7.9%	-7.86%
#3	Hajduk Split handicapAH	1.91	7.9%	-7.86%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.77	8.9%	-8.12%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	1.91	8.9%	-8.12%
18:00 · Riga FC v KI Klaksvik Conference League Qualifying
#1	Riga FC1X2	1.33	7.9%	-4.59%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.65	8.4%	-7.62%
#3	Riga FC -1.5AH	1.95	8.7%	-8.59%
#4	KI Klaksvik handicapAH	1.74	8.7%	-8.59%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.10	8.4%	-9.30%
18:00 · SK Brann v PAOK Conference League Qualifying
#1	SK Brann -0.5AH	2.30	7.8%	-6.34%
#2	SK Brann1X2	2.35	8.1%	-7.10%
#3	PAOK1X2	2.65	8.1%	-7.60%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.59	8.4%	-7.63%
#5	PAOK handicapAH	1.56	7.8%	-7.68%
19:00 · AGF v Benfica Europa League Qualifying
#1	Benfica1X2	1.36	5.8%	-2.48%
#2	Under 3.5O/U	1.77	6.5%	-5.74%
#3	Over 3.5O/U	2.00	6.5%	-7.43%
#4	AGF +1.5AH	1.83	8.0%	-7.95%
#5	Benfica handicapAH	1.87	8.0%	-7.95%
19:00 · CSKA Sofia v OFI Crete Europa League Qualifying
#1	CSKA Sofia1X2	1.69	5.8%	-4.73%
#2	OFI Crete handicapAH	2.15	7.3%	-5.87%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.83	6.9%	-6.14%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	1.91	6.9%	-6.14%
#5	Draw1X2	3.75	5.8%	-6.32%
19:00 · FC Thun v Lech Poznan Europa League Qualifying
#1	Lech Poznan1X2	2.30	5.5%	-4.51%
#2	FC Thun1X2	2.75	5.5%	-5.02%
#3	Draw1X2	3.90	5.5%	-5.95%
#4	Under 3.5O/U	1.62	7.0%	-6.21%
#5	Lech Poznan handicapAH	2.20	7.7%	-6.30%
19:00 · Ajax v FC Sion Conference League Qualifying
#1	Ajax1X2	1.33	8.3%	-5.01%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.83	8.0%	-7.25%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.87	8.0%	-7.25%
#4	Ajax -1.5AH	1.87	8.0%	-7.95%
#5	FC Sion handicapAH	1.83	8.0%	-7.95%
19:00 · Hap Tel Aviv v Atalanta Conference League Qualifying
#1	Atalanta1X2	1.47	8.6%	-5.32%
#2	Atalanta handicapAH	2.40	7.8%	-6.35%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.80	7.9%	-7.15%
#4	Under 2.5O/U	1.91	7.9%	-7.15%
#5	Hap Tel Aviv +1.5AH	1.51	7.8%	-7.69%
19:00 · St. Gallen v Nordsjælland Conference League Qualifying
#1	St. Gallen -0.5AH	2.15	8.1%	-6.63%
#2	St. Gallen1X2	2.20	8.1%	-7.16%
#3	Nordsjælland1X2	2.70	8.1%	-7.67%
#4	Nordsjælland handicapAH	1.62	8.1%	-7.97%
#5	Over 3.5O/U	1.91	8.9%	-8.12%
19:30 · Anderlecht v Kairat Almaty Europa League Qualifying
#1	Anderlecht1X2	1.29	5.7%	-2.37%
#2	Kairat Almaty handicapAH	2.00	7.4%	-6.03%
#3	Over 2.5O/U	1.56	6.8%	-6.05%
#4	Anderlecht -1.5AH	1.74	7.4%	-7.37%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	2.35	6.8%	-7.74%
19:30 · Ferencvaros v Trabzonspor Europa League Qualifying
#1	Trabzonspor1X2	2.10	5.4%	-4.45%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.67	6.5%	-5.72%
#3	Ferencvaros1X2	3.25	5.4%	-5.88%
#4	Draw1X2	3.70	5.4%	-5.88%
#5	Trabzonspor handicapAH	2.00	8.3%	-6.91%
19:30 · Vienna v Braga Conference League Qualifying
#1	Braga1X2	1.95	8.5%	-7.35%
#2	Vienna +0.5AH	1.80	7.9%	-7.86%
#3	Braga handicapAH	1.91	7.9%	-7.86%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	1.95	8.7%	-7.88%
#5	Under 2.5O/U	1.74	8.7%	-7.88%
19:30 · Borac v Vikingur Conference League Qualifying
#1	Borac1X2	2.00	7.7%	-6.73%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.69	8.0%	-7.18%
#3	Borac -0.5AH	1.95	7.7%	-7.66%
#4	Vikingur handicapAH	1.77	7.7%	-7.66%
#5	Draw1X2	3.65	7.7%	-8.17%
19:30 · Brighton v Tromso Conference League Qualifying
#1	Brighton1X2	1.12	8.1%	-4.73%
#2	Brighton -2.5AH	2.00	7.4%	-6.03%
#3	Over 3.5O/U	1.91	7.9%	-7.15%
#4	Under 3.5O/U	1.80	7.9%	-7.15%
#5	Tromso handicapAH	1.74	7.4%	-7.37%
19:45 · Rijeka v Midtjylland Conference League Qualifying
#1	Rijeka -0.5AH	2.35	8.7%	-7.23%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.87	8.0%	-7.25%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	1.83	8.0%	-7.25%
#4	Rijeka1X2	2.45	8.4%	-7.43%
#5	Midtjylland1X2	2.65	8.4%	-7.94%
20:00 · Hibernian v KAA Gent Conference League Qualifying
#1	KAA Gent handicapAH	2.40	7.8%	-6.35%
#2	Under 2.5O/U	1.57	8.1%	-7.30%
#3	KAA Gent1X2	2.45	8.3%	-7.31%
#4	Hibernian +0.5AH	1.51	7.8%	-7.69%
#5	Hibernian1X2	2.80	8.3%	-7.81%
20:00 · Larne v Red Imps Conference League Qualifying
#1	Larne1X2	2.00	8.4%	-7.43%
#2	Over 2.5O/U	1.95	8.7%	-7.88%
#3	Under 2.5O/U	1.74	8.7%	-7.88%
#4	Larne -0.5AH	1.95	8.7%	-8.59%
#5	Red Imps handicapAH	1.74	8.7%	-8.59%
20:00 · FK Partizan v Getafe Conference League Qualifying
#1	Getafe handicapAH	2.05	8.8%	-7.36%
#2	Under 2.5O/U	1.71	8.3%	-7.55%
#3	Getafe1X2	2.10	8.7%	-7.72%
#4	FK Partizan +0.5AH	1.67	8.8%	-8.70%
#5	FK Partizan1X2	3.25	8.7%	-9.16%

Top 5 Leagues

2 matches · ranked by expected return.

#	Pick	Odds	Margin	Expected
19:30 · Celta Vigo v Osasuna La Liga
#1	Celta Vigo1X2	1.83	4.8%	-3.67%
#2	Under 2.5O/U	1.61	5.7%	-4.95%
#3	Draw1X2	3.40	4.8%	-5.26%
#4	Over 2.5O/U	2.30	5.7%	-6.64%
#5	Osasuna1X2	4.80	4.8%	-7.78%
20:00 · Barcelona v Athletic La Liga
#1	Barcelona1X2	1.24	4.7%	-1.35%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.87	5.9%	-5.08%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.91	5.9%	-5.08%
#4	Athletic handicapAH	2.15	8.1%	-6.63%
#5	Barcelona -1.5AH	1.62	8.1%	-7.97%

Lower Leagues

1 match · ranked by expected return.

#	Pick	Odds	Margin	Expected
19:45 · Boreham Wood v Boston Utd National League
#1	Under 3.5O/U	1.61	6.7%	-5.92%
#2	Boreham Wood -1.5AH	2.35	8.1%	-6.65%
#3	Boreham Wood1X2	1.56	7.9%	-6.83%
#4	Over 3.5O/U	2.25	6.7%	-7.61%
#5	Boston Utd handicapAH	1.53	8.1%	-7.99%

Domestic Cups

2 matches · ranked by expected return.

#	Pick	Odds	Margin	Expected
19:30 · Chelsea v Luton League Cup
#1	Under 4.5O/U	1.62	5.0%	-4.23%
#2	Chelsea1X2	1.10	7.9%	-4.58%
#3	Over 4.5O/U	2.30	5.0%	-5.92%
#4	Chelsea -2.5AH	1.77	7.7%	-7.66%
#5	Luton handicapAH	1.95	7.7%	-7.66%
20:00 · Fulham v Wimbledon League Cup
#1	Fulham1X2	1.15	7.7%	-4.37%
#2	Over 3.5O/U	1.91	5.9%	-5.08%
#3	Under 3.5O/U	1.87	5.9%	-5.08%
#4	Fulham -2.5AH	2.10	8.4%	-6.98%
#5	Wimbledon handicapAH	1.65	8.4%	-8.32%

How these are chosen

Two market facts do the ranking, and neither is a prediction.

Price. Short-priced selections lose far less than long ones — −0.5% at odds under 1.50 against −24% above 10.00, measured on every closing price in 362,970 matches. This is the favourite–long-shot bias. It is well known, already in the price, and cannot be beaten — only respected.

Commission. Each selection is then charged the actual margin on the line being offered, which today ranges across the card. A bet at 9% commission must overcome six more points than the same bet at 3%.

What would help more than any pick here is taking the best price across several bookmakers rather than one: worth about +2.8 points at match result, measured the same way. That is larger than the spread across this entire page.

calibration built 2026-08-27 · python3 picks.py --recalibrate